War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Burma
Myanmar's junta is conducting a phased vote over the coming weeks.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Raymond Mora
Raymond Mora

Professional blackjack strategist with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and mathematics.

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